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Since the birth of the highest point in the year in the middle of this year, the trend of Dalian soybean meal has been tepid. How will the soybean meal price be interpreted at the end of the year compared to the rising prices of many commodities?
The economy is turning to promote the arrival of commodity bull market
On November 4th, the US non-farm payrolls data was released in October. In October, the number of non-agricultural employment increased by 161,000, which was less than the expected value of 173,000. However, in August and September, the total number of employed people was revised up to 44,000, the unemployment rate fell to 4.9%, and the salary growth rate increased. Many data showed employment in the United States. The market performed strongly and the probability of raising interest rates in December was improved.
Immediately after the US presidential election came to an end, Trump unexpectedly won. The comfort of Trump's gentle and intimate speech made the market stabilize again after the rapid release of panic. Subsequent weekly data on the number of initial jobless claims also continues to prove that the US economy is thriving. The US core CPI announced in September has increased by 2.2% year-on-year, which is 11 months higher than the inflation target set by the Fed. The interest rate hike in December is already on the line.
At the same time, the Chinese economy has also shown signs of turning better. The latest major macroeconomic data for October is eye-opening, with positive changes in industrial value added, fixed asset investment, CPI and PPI. Under the guidance of a prudent monetary policy, the Chinese economy is gradually stabilizing.
The economic operation of major economies such as China and the United States has opened up, making the commodity bull market quiet.
US soybeans are cashing, paying attention to South American soybean sowing
The recently released USDA November supply and demand report has astoundingly raised the yield and output of new US soybeans, both of which set a new record high. The US soybean new crop yield was raised from 51.4 bushels/acre reported in October to 52.5 bushels/acre. From 4,269 million bushels in October to 4.361 billion bushels. After the data was released, the US soybeans plummeted, reversing the cumulative increase in previous trading days. According to historical experience, the output data of the US soybean supply and demand report in November is not much different from the data of the fixed production report in January of the next year, so the production data of the new US soybean crop has been basically determined. So where is the market's support?
One of the supports is the strong US soybean export. As of the week of November 10, the US soybean export inspection volume was 2,785,428 tons, and in comparison, the US soybean export inspection volume was 2,239,614 tons in the same period last year. So far this year, the US soybean export inspection volume has accumulated to 19,082,295 tons, compared with 163,190,58 tons in the same period of the previous year. The outstanding performance of the US soybean exports is expected to continue to lower the US soybeans ending stocks.
The second support is the South American soybean production variable. Compared with the record high yield of the US soybeans, South American soybean new crops have the expectation of lowering production. Brazil's crop agency Conab cut Brazil's 2016/2017 soybean production from 101.9 billion to 104 million tons estimated in October to 101.6 million to 103.5 million tons due to poor weather conditions in southern Brazil. Argentina's Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange said in a recent report that Argentina's farmers were expected to plant 19.6 million hectares of soybeans this year, down 2.5% from the previous year. In addition, recent major meteorological agencies such as the US Meteorological Administration and the World Meteorological Organization have identified La Nina as having emerged. The weather generally causes drought in southern Brazil and Argentina, which may result in a reduction in South American soybean production. Therefore, the market for South American soybeans has the expectation of weather speculation.
Domestic soybean meal supply is tight, demand is picking up
Recently, the fundamentals of domestic soybean meal are generally stronger. The domestic mainstream oil mills have tight stocks of soybean meal. According to relevant data, as of November 4, the total stocks of soybean meal in mainstream oil plants were 586,600 tons, an increase of 10.70% from 531,700 tons last week, and a decrease of 49.69% compared with last year. In the same period, the contracted amount of soybean meal was 3.924 million tons, an increase of 11.70% from last week and an increase of 49.15% from last year. Due to the better demand for soybean meal, its tightly supplied fabric has been maintained for at least a month.
Domestic feed demand will also enter a seasonal recovery phase. The newly released live pig stocks in October were 379.09 million heads, which was the same as last month; the number of able sows was 37.03 million heads, a slight decrease of 0.20%. The stock of pigs is still at a historical low and the supply of pork is tightening. At present, it is close to major festivals such as New Year's Day and Spring Festival, and the demand for family bacon in winter. The recovery of pork consumption will stimulate the demand of farmers to fill the bar, and feed consumption will pick up.
In short, even the center of gravity of the company may slowly rise, it is recommended to treat it with more ideas. (Author: HNA Futures)
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